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Ampega

Insights July 2026

Our perspective on the markets.
Here, our economists provide their take on current market developments and put them into context.

The world at a glance

  • WHO declares a public health emergency of international concern due to the Ebola virus
  • The Football World Cup kicks off in the US, Mexico and Canada 
  • Earthquake in Venezuela leaves more than 3,000 dead and over 16,000 injured - a $200 million fund has been set up to repair the damage 

 

  • Kevin Warsh takes over as Chair of the Fed and presents with a surprisingly hawkish stance 
  • The US rejects the automatic extension of the USMCA and demands wide-ranging changes - the agreement will therefore automatically expire in 10 years’ time  
  • Fed Governor Lisa Cook is allowed to remain in office for the time being following a Supreme Court ruling, whilst investigations against her are ongoing 
  • The US administration is exploring further ways to change the composition of the Fed Board 
  • The EU and the US agree on a new customs agreement  
  • The US administration restricts access to the latest/most powerful AI models from Anthropic and OpenAI for non-US citizens 
  • The EU and Mexico sign a free trade agreement 
  • UK: Prime Minister Keir Starmer resigns - his successor is likely to be his party rival Andy Burnham  
  • The EU aims to reduce its trade deficit with China and limit imports of rare earths 
  • ECB raises key interest rate for the first time in nearly three years (to 2.25 per cent)  
  • Extreme heatwave hits Europe, bringing record temperatures 

 

  • The Pensions Commission has proposed a wide-ranging package of measures which the government intends to implement in full - this would be the biggest reform since Agenda 2010  
  • Coalition plans reforms with focus on tax relief, implementation of the pension reform package, support for future-oriented sectors and reduction of red tape 

Ampega Forecast Overview Main Scenario "Global Tensions"

Market Update

Bond markets

  • Agreement on the Iran conflict & falling oil prices spark a global rally  
  • Short end of the US yield curve under pressure following a surprisingly hawkish Warsh 
  • Gilts follow the global trend following Starmer’s resignation & weaker economic indicators - a BoE rate hike is no longer priced in  
  • Bunds & EGBs ease following a fall in energy prices & rate hike of a dovish ECB 
  • JGBs buck the global trend due to the government’s planned special fund  

Equity Markets

  • Equity markets (particularly in Europe & Asia) delighted by the agreement between the US and Iran 
  • AI-Trade fluctuates between old optimism and growing, new scepticism 
  • KOSPI turbulent due to AI-Trade 
  • SpaceX goes public with a valuation of $1.9 trillion, marking the largest IPO in history 
  • Nikkei hits a new all-time high following the announcement of the Japanese special fund 

 

Macroeconomic Outlook

Charts of the Month | July 2026

USA

Eurozone

 

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