The world at a glance
- Russian Minister of Finance attends G20 meeting for the first time since the Ukraine war
- Several OPEC+ members agree to increase production by 188k barrels per day in September
Severe earthquakes in Colombia leave many dead and injured
- Trade dispute between the US and Canada escalates
- House of Representatives votes to increase defence spending to fund the Iran war
- US secures Venezuelan oil through a 100-year licence
- SCOTUS overturns ruling against provisional tightening of postal voting rights
- Bessent wants to consolidate the budget after national debt rises above $40 trillion for the first time, but has not yet presented any concrete plans
- Warsh surprises at Jackson Hole with a hawkish speech
- Extreme heatwaves across Europe – many places are suffering from wildfires, power cuts, water shortages, drought and crop failures
- Iceland votes against resuming EU accession negotiations
- Andy Burnham takes office as Prime Minister of the UK
- Rhine water levels at historic lows for a long time – rain eases pressure on shipping traffic
- Cabinet reshuffle: Following Jens Spahn’s resignation, Merz reorganises the government
- Government holds Russia responsible for attempted drone attack in Halle/Leipzig, closes consulate in Bonn and introduces stricter entry controls for Russian nationals
- Suspected acts of sabotage at substations in Bergheim and Jänschwalde
Ampega Forecast Overview Main Scenario "Global Tensions"

Market Update

Bond markets
- Yields hit multi-decade highs worldwide: energy prices, government debt & competition from private issuers (hyperscalers)
- US administration intervention attempts (including higher buybacks) largely fail to gain traction, as underlying problems remain unresolved
- Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech is received as hawkish, but markets remain convinced of an interest rate hike (50:50)
- ECB rate hike is fully priced in following Schnabel’s speech
- EGB yields, led by the FRA, are also under pressure
- In Poland, higher inflation is adding the sell-off

Equity Markets
- Re-escalation of the Iran war and heightened nervousness surrounding AI stocks are driving volatility
- Strong global earnings season is being offset by inflation concerns and trade conflicts
- On the one hand, energy and utility stocks are benefiting particularly from high oil prices
- AI-related concerns are putting pressure on the Nikkei and KOSPI in particular
- The Hang Seng is benefiting from announced stimulus measures and a rotation into Chinese tech stocks
- European stocks are relatively unremarkable by comparison
Macroeconomic Outlook



Charts of the Month | September 2026




USA


Eurozone


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