The world at a glance
- The Fed raises its interest rate to 4,00%, marking the first rate hike since 2023, and sends a hawkish signal
- The House of Representatives passes new sanctions against Russia and its trading partners – Trump and Putin agree on a temporary easing of diesel sanctions
- G7 agree to release strategic diesel reserves
- Greenland, Denmark and the US sign an agreement on sovereignty, self-determination and the US military presence on the island
- State visit to the US: Xi and Trump pledge friendship and cooperation
- Trump invites Putin to the G20 summit in Miami
- ECB raises key interest rate to 2.50%
- Canada signals openness to becoming an ‘associated member’ of the EU
- EU and the Philippines reach agreement on a free trade deal
- According to the EU’s Copernicus Climate Service: Hottest summer in Western Europe since records began
- China agrees to limit exports of hybrid cars to the EU
- State elections:
- AfD wins by a wide margin in Saxony-Anhalt
- In Mecklenburg-West Pomerania, the AfD becomes the stronges party with nearly 40%, the CDU fails to clear the 5% threshold
- In Berlin, Die Linke becomes the largest party with almost 26%
- Leading economic institutes and the government raise their growth forecast for Germany to 1.3%
- The UAE plans to invest €40bn in Germany
- The US proposes a $10bn fund for alternative export routes to SvH
- Trump rules out US attacks on Iran ahead of the mid-term elections
- Following attacks by Houthi rebels on Saudi airports, the Saudi government launches retaliatory actions against them
- Saudi Arabia restores the East-West pipeline following Houthi attacks
- Houthis capture the port city of Mokha
Ampega Forecast Overview Main Scenario "Global Tensions"
Market Update
Bond markets
- Bond markets experience a pitch-black month: inflation risks (high energy prices), fiscal concerns and persistently high demand for capital drive yields to multi-decade highs
- In the US, markets initially came under pressure following the Fed’s first rate hike since ’23 and hawkish comments, although part of the move was later priced out
- Europe: OAT-Bund spread at its highest level since the sovereign debt crisis due to fiscal and political concerns
- 30yr Gilts temporarily >6%
- Bolsonaro’s unexpectedly strong first-round victory provides a boost to Brazilian bonds
Equity Markets
- Rising yields and high oil prices are also weighing on sentiment in global equity markets – extending rotation out of real estate and small-caps
- In the US, the AI rally continues, although temporary cautionary reports are weighing on the market – the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new all-time highs
- Europe weaker amid a lack of AI equities and political concerns
- Sell-off in the semiconductor sector at the month-end: the KOSPI is particularly affected
- Mirroring the bond market, the Bovespa also benefits from election results
Macroeconomic Outlook
Charts of the Month | September 2026
USA
Eurozone
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